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In January of this year, The Japan Times reported one such failing when a tremor measuring 4.8 on the Japanese scale did not trigger the early warning system that had been installed in Noto Peninsular, Ishikawa-ken only three months before. Thankfully nobody was injured but it could have been worse. Last year the same region suffered an earthquake that measured 6.9. This quake killed one person, injured many more, and forced hundreds into temporary housing, many of whom are still there. A government spokesman cited the reason for the failure in the system as its inability to accurately predict the magnitude of the quake. Four months later, it was again reported that the early warning system failed to respond when an even larger earthquake, this time measuring 6.8, struck the densely populated southeastern corner of Honshu. Miraculously only six people were injured but no one is in any doubt about how serious it could have been.
There are three important pieces of information required to make earthquake prediction effective: location, magnitude, and timing. Seismologists admit that while they are adept at being able to state quite precisely where earthquakes are likely to happen, accurate measuring of conditions that would determine when and how strong those quakes will be is still something that eludes them.
The early warning system currently used in Japan is comprised of a series of electronic sensors. These are strategically placed along known fault lines to pick up the kind of seismic fluttering that usually precedes a serious tremor. When functioning properly, residents should receive around a 10-second warning. Some may argue that this is simply not long enough, while others may counter that any warning must surely be an advantage over having no warning at all.
If given a preference however, most people would agree that ideally, hours or even days of advance notice is what is really needed. Yet the technology for this kind of prophetic prediction simply does not exist at the moment. For the last four years, scientists in the U.S. have been conducting tests inside the San Andreas Fault where they believe they have discovered something that could help with prediction. By installing ultra-sensitive equipment into the fault they have been able to detect changes in the rock up to 10 hours before a low magnitude quake strikes. Researchers do, however, admit that despite this breakthrough they are still far from being able to provide accurate advance quake warnings. One fact that they all agree on is that this area of science is suffering from being seriously under-funded.
There are, however, other ways in which people believe that earthquakes can be predicted. Although many scientists publicly refuse to acknowledge these methods, they are proving to have surprisingly accurate strike rates – up to 70% in some cases. While some of these more unorthodox methods may appear to be more science fiction than fact, investigation reveals that there may indeed be a strong case for considering them, especially when their accuracy rate proves to be so uncannily high.
Most amateur earthquake predictors or "jishin yochi" agree that whatever method they use to read the “signs,” one phenomenon they are studying is the effect of shifts in the electromagnetic fields that crisscross the planet. Fluctuations in these fields have unusual effects on plant, animal, and mineral life and it is these changes that predictors are looking for. A consequence of the high interest in earthquake prediction has led to a proliferation of websites reporting their findings, some of which are accumulating quite a large fan base.
The founder of one such site is 63-year old Yoji Sasaki. His predictions are based on unusual cloud formations that he believes can be clearly seen directly above an impending epicentre. Observers of this phenomenon claim it is uncannily accurate; followers like to take photographs of clouds, post them on the website and then confirm or refute their effectiveness at a later date. You can see for yourself at www.menokami.jp though it should be noted that this site is currently only available in Japanese with access to detailed member pages available through subscription only. Non-members do have access to the forum where the cloud photographs are posted.
Observing unusual behaviour in animals is a well-known indicator of heightened seismic activity. Indeed, a spate of successful, large-scale life-saving predictions in regions of China in the early 1970s prompted scientists there to conduct extensive research into this phenomenon (although the method itself dates to being far older). The Chinese have since become pioneers in this field and so sure are they of its effectiveness that several prediction stations have been set up along some of the more notorious fault-lines that thread the country. People who live in rural areas are perhaps more able to benefit from this method than urbanites as they tend to share their lives more closely with animals. However, the awareness that animals are able to sense and consequently warn us of forthcoming earthquakes – hours and sometimes days in advance of the event – encourages some people to watch them closely; catfish are popular subjects in Japan. Observing animal behaviour is particularly useful as it tends to be highly localized to the effected area. For a detailed account of this research, see http://www.drgeorgepc.com/EarthquakePredictionChina.html.
While scientists admit they are still quite far from being able to accurately predict the occurrence of large earthquakes, many regions of the world continue to suffer the devastating effects of large-scale quakes. It may therefore be worth keeping an open mind on the matter. Lives can be saved with only a few minutes warning, so surely any source that is able to provide this is going to be invaluable, however unlikely it may seem.
All ward offices provide information about what to do in an earthquake, including details on how to prepare your own earthquake survival pack.
One good online source provided in English has been posted by Shinjuku ward office:
http://www.city.shinjuku.tokyo.jp/foreign/english/guide/saigai/saigai_2.html.
Earthquake Prediction – Science v. Nature
Last week marked the anniversaries of two recent deadly earthquakes in Japan. On July 16, 2007, a quake with the magnitude of 6.8 struck Niigata prefecture, killing 15 people and injuring more than 2,000. On June 14 of this year another powerful quake struck the Tohoku region. With a magnitude of 7.2, this disaster claimed the lives of 13 people and caused massive landslides. These in turn destroyed bridges, roads, and train lines making the task of rescue and recovery an even more daunting and dangerous one. The level of seismic activity beneath Japan is well documented. While no one is in any doubt that an early-warning system is a necessity that can almost certainly help to reduce the number of fatalities, their effectiveness is questionable, especially when news of their failings is often announced in the local press.In January of this year, The Japan Times reported one such failing when a tremor measuring 4.8 on the Japanese scale did not trigger the early warning system that had been installed in Noto Peninsular, Ishikawa-ken only three months before. Thankfully nobody was injured but it could have been worse. Last year the same region suffered an earthquake that measured 6.9. This quake killed one person, injured many more, and forced hundreds into temporary housing, many of whom are still there. A government spokesman cited the reason for the failure in the system as its inability to accurately predict the magnitude of the quake. Four months later, it was again reported that the early warning system failed to respond when an even larger earthquake, this time measuring 6.8, struck the densely populated southeastern corner of Honshu. Miraculously only six people were injured but no one is in any doubt about how serious it could have been.
There are three important pieces of information required to make earthquake prediction effective: location, magnitude, and timing. Seismologists admit that while they are adept at being able to state quite precisely where earthquakes are likely to happen, accurate measuring of conditions that would determine when and how strong those quakes will be is still something that eludes them.
The early warning system currently used in Japan is comprised of a series of electronic sensors. These are strategically placed along known fault lines to pick up the kind of seismic fluttering that usually precedes a serious tremor. When functioning properly, residents should receive around a 10-second warning. Some may argue that this is simply not long enough, while others may counter that any warning must surely be an advantage over having no warning at all.
If given a preference however, most people would agree that ideally, hours or even days of advance notice is what is really needed. Yet the technology for this kind of prophetic prediction simply does not exist at the moment. For the last four years, scientists in the U.S. have been conducting tests inside the San Andreas Fault where they believe they have discovered something that could help with prediction. By installing ultra-sensitive equipment into the fault they have been able to detect changes in the rock up to 10 hours before a low magnitude quake strikes. Researchers do, however, admit that despite this breakthrough they are still far from being able to provide accurate advance quake warnings. One fact that they all agree on is that this area of science is suffering from being seriously under-funded.
There are, however, other ways in which people believe that earthquakes can be predicted. Although many scientists publicly refuse to acknowledge these methods, they are proving to have surprisingly accurate strike rates – up to 70% in some cases. While some of these more unorthodox methods may appear to be more science fiction than fact, investigation reveals that there may indeed be a strong case for considering them, especially when their accuracy rate proves to be so uncannily high.
Most amateur earthquake predictors or "jishin yochi" agree that whatever method they use to read the “signs,” one phenomenon they are studying is the effect of shifts in the electromagnetic fields that crisscross the planet. Fluctuations in these fields have unusual effects on plant, animal, and mineral life and it is these changes that predictors are looking for. A consequence of the high interest in earthquake prediction has led to a proliferation of websites reporting their findings, some of which are accumulating quite a large fan base.
The founder of one such site is 63-year old Yoji Sasaki. His predictions are based on unusual cloud formations that he believes can be clearly seen directly above an impending epicentre. Observers of this phenomenon claim it is uncannily accurate; followers like to take photographs of clouds, post them on the website and then confirm or refute their effectiveness at a later date. You can see for yourself at www.menokami.jp though it should be noted that this site is currently only available in Japanese with access to detailed member pages available through subscription only. Non-members do have access to the forum where the cloud photographs are posted.
Observing unusual behaviour in animals is a well-known indicator of heightened seismic activity. Indeed, a spate of successful, large-scale life-saving predictions in regions of China in the early 1970s prompted scientists there to conduct extensive research into this phenomenon (although the method itself dates to being far older). The Chinese have since become pioneers in this field and so sure are they of its effectiveness that several prediction stations have been set up along some of the more notorious fault-lines that thread the country. People who live in rural areas are perhaps more able to benefit from this method than urbanites as they tend to share their lives more closely with animals. However, the awareness that animals are able to sense and consequently warn us of forthcoming earthquakes – hours and sometimes days in advance of the event – encourages some people to watch them closely; catfish are popular subjects in Japan. Observing animal behaviour is particularly useful as it tends to be highly localized to the effected area. For a detailed account of this research, see http://www.drgeorgepc.com/EarthquakePredictionChina.html.
While scientists admit they are still quite far from being able to accurately predict the occurrence of large earthquakes, many regions of the world continue to suffer the devastating effects of large-scale quakes. It may therefore be worth keeping an open mind on the matter. Lives can be saved with only a few minutes warning, so surely any source that is able to provide this is going to be invaluable, however unlikely it may seem.
All ward offices provide information about what to do in an earthquake, including details on how to prepare your own earthquake survival pack.
One good online source provided in English has been posted by Shinjuku ward office:
http://www.city.shinjuku.tokyo.jp/foreign/english/guide/saigai/saigai_2.html.
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